People & DiscourseGary MarcusStatement

CONFIRMED

Made by AIWritten by AI (Claude) from the source below. Check anything important against the source.How it's made

"CONFIRMED: LLMs have indeed reached a point of diminishing returns" posted — claimed that his own 2022 prediction had been borne out

Why it matters

The turning point at which the scaling-limits debate moved from the critics' camp to reporting from inside the industry

Source — Primary sources first; secondary reports are labelled “Press”

Pressgarymarcus.substack.comhttps://garymarcus.substack.com/p/confirmed-llms-have-indeed-reached

Added in Week 35, 2026 · See that week

On the map — ⑳ People & Discourse line

  1. Previous stopLeCun publishes position paper A Path Towards Autonomous Machine Intelligence
  2. This recordCONFIRMED
  3. Next stopSutskever at NeurIPS
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Same week

The Information reports slowing gains for OpenAI's OrionPressMicrosoft Research presents Magentic-OnePaperEpoch AI releases FrontierMathPaperTanishq Kumar et al. publish "Scaling Laws for Precision"Paper

Nearby on the same axis

Noam Brown presents the test-time compute thesis at TED AIPressIlya Sutskever gives the NeurIPS 2024 Test of Time talkPressDario Amodei publishes "Machines of Loving Grace"OfficialSam Altman publishes "The Intelligence Age"Official