Reasoning Models & the AGI DebateDario Amodei (Dwarkesh)Dario AmodeiStatement

We are near the end of the exponential

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"We are near the end of the exponential" — at the same time, puts the probability of a country of geniuses in a datacenter within 10 years at 90%

Why it matters

A logical structure in which the end of scaling and the imminence of AGI are two sides of the same claim

Source — Primary sources first; secondary reports are labelled “Press”

Officialdwarkesh.comhttps://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dario-amodei-2

Added in Week 35, 2026 · See that week

On the map — ⑥ Reasoning Models line

  1. Previous stopClaude Opus 4.5
  2. This recordWe are near the end of the exponential
  3. Next stopClaude Sonnet 4.6
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Same week

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Nearby on the same axis

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